Warren the Loser

McCain and Obama talk for an hour each on live TV with Pastor Rick Warren tonight.

All three have much to lose or gain tonight. Here's a handicap:

McCAIN - The man who James Dobson said he wouldn't vote for (but Dobson is now back-peddling). And McCain was unfaithful to his first wife. Was it about him or Edwards, or both, that Rick Warren made reference just this week when he said that he would have reservations about voting for a man who had cheated on his wife? McCain, who just this week suggested that his VP choice need not necessarily be pro-life. How will McCain fair in this one on one conversation with a pastor?

One would think that the audience may be skewed toward 'religious' voters. If so, McCain could have a chance to make gains with a group that he has offended in the past and which seems largely skeptical of him thus far. The setting itself will be helpful. But I predict McCain will not do particularly well.

McCain will not be comfortable in this conversation. Almost everything about it is outside his comfort zone. He is unconvincing and stiff when he speaks of personal religious convictions. Further, some of Rick Warren's social concerns - poverty, HIV/AIDS, community development in third world countries - these too are not in the center of McCain's radar. Will Warren include topics with which McCain is more at ease? Of course. Will Warren make the atmosphere casual and conversational? Yes. There will be no 'gotcha' questions from Warren. But he most certainly will ask about the issue of life. McCain's answer may be telling.

OBAMA - He is tagged by some as a Muslim or Muslim sympathizer. He is pro-abortion. He is pro-gay. He holds to liberal, liberation theology. All of these quite different from his host, the Southern Baptist Rick Warren. But Obama will be able to speak much more comfortably about his personal faith. He will be much more at home 'in church.' Having conversations with a pastor isn't foreign to him -- it is part of his personal experience and a constant necessity in his political setting. Like every successful black politician, he is familiar with the language of faith.

And Obama is an outspoken proponent within his party of being more willing to speak of faith. To the consternation of his own party's abolish-all-reference-to-faith crowd, Obama has given speeches making the case for faith in public life.

Obama will come across as much more comfortable with the setting and the topic of faith.

When Warren moves the conversation to many of his own social concerns, Obama will be on his home court. Who can speak of social justice, community development, HIV/AIDS, the war on poverty better than a 'world-class' African-American Democrat?

But will his theological liberalism shine through? Yes.

Will his political liberalism shine through? Yes.

With the likely audience, that will seal their perception that Obama is a glib hyper-liberal.

WARREN -- Rick Warren has pulled off this event. That in itself is an incredible testament to his connections, influence, and the respect that media executives and both political camps must have for him. He will make the conversation comfortable and I would be surprised if Warren tried to 'be somebody' other than who he is - a pastor with a concern for people. The candidates and their camps will not have a complaint with Warren.

But Warren will be the big loser tonight.

He will be skewered on many conservative Christian blogs, publications, radio shows and pulpits. He will be hammered for not hammering one candidate or the other on some bible theme. Warren will be an un-biblical liberal in their eyes.

Warren may be seen to those on the political and religious left as a bible-thumping Southern Baptist shill for Republicanism. They will watch the same program and come away with an opinion just the opposite of their conservative counter-parts. Warren will be ripped on left-wing blogs and among liberal Christians.

Net net: for the candidates, little change in perception. For Warren - he will do fine among the not very religious viewers - but ironically will be criticized by the most religious.