RTR Out Front

Noemie Emory, a noted political author, wrote an article to be released next Monday in The Weekly Standard. It is called, "The Six Things We Don't Know About 08." Number six reads as follows:

"6. The unforeseen unforeseen (with a nod to Donald Rumsfeld): Beyond the things we expect to be unexpected are the true unpredictables, the things that can change or blow up without warning... Mitt Romney remade himself as a social conservative, planning to run on the right uncontested, while John McCain and Rudy Giuliani fought over the same pool of votes. Instead, he split votes with Mike Huckabee, whom he never saw coming. 'Romney the buttoned down businessman had planned for every contingency except one,' writes Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics. 'The exceptionally gifted speaker with the Mayberry charm proved to be the kryptonite to Romney's well oiled, deep pocketed, campaign.' Kryptonite, did you say? Ask Hillary Clinton, now floored and flailing, against the one threat she never foresaw. She had planned for years--perhaps since Yale Law School--to emerge as the undisputed queen bee of her party, and, when attractive centrists like Evan Bayh and Mark Warner bowed out early, the game looked over. The last thing she expected was Barack Obama, who came at her at once from the left, right, and center, who could trump her gender card with his race one, and whose youth and genial nature seemed to immunize him from the Clintons' favorite modes of attack."

On January 26th, prior to the Florida Primary, I wrote on Restore the Republic, "Many times, political campaigns are decided by the 'except for' factor. That is, a candidate may have been a winner or at least very competitive if it were not for an unexpected candidate’s influence on the campaign." After citing early examples, I concluded with, "As you can see, Huckabee and Obama have changed the race entirely. In Huck’s case, I believe he is a spoiler more than a winner. Thompson based his whole strategy on starting in the south but thought that his competition would be from NY, Mass and the far West. He didn’t figure on the Huckster. Obama is not a just a spoiler. He is the likely winner of the Democrat nomination."

When you want political analysis before the beltway gang gets around to it, stick with Restore the Republic.