Super Tuesday

A thousand delegates are up for grabs today, “Super Tuesday.” It’s the largest single day primary equation in U S presidential primary history! About half of the states are involved - each wanting to get in early enough to have some significance, some voice in the matter.

It is arguable that many states, maybe most in Super Tuesday, are as left out as they ever have been. They did not receive active campaigning from any of the candidates. There was not enough time or money (or delegates at stake) to visit all of the Super Tuesday states. Predictably, the campaigns have focussed for the most part on the ‘big states’ like California and New York or perhaps a region like the deep south. Each has cherry-picked a few other locations to make appearances - either to build on pockets of existing support or to till the ground for the general election. The Super Tuesday approach has been super expensive to the campaigns.

So, what will be the effect of Tuesday’s voting?

The Democrats will still have a two person race after Feb. 5 even if Hillary ‘wins’ most of the states (as the razor thin polls indicate). The Democrat rules divvy out the delegates proportionally based upon each state’s vote. So, Obama and Hillary could gain almost equal numbers of delegates. The race could remain undecided for quite a while longer on the Democrat side.

For the Republicans, Tuesday may well effectively wrap up the primary season. The GOP is a party where ‘the establishment’ chooses its candidate, anoints him, then delivers the local vote for him. The establishment has (quite inexplicably) chosen John McCain. The governors and other GOP notables are overwhelmingly coming to his side with endorsements. Most polls have McCain well ahead overall and leading in almost every Super Tuesday state. Because the GOP often does not proportion delegates - the winner will take all in many of the primary states Tuesday. Where the delegates are proportioned, McCain leads there as well. By nightfall, John McCain will have a commanding lead in the delegate count. The Republican nomination, though not sealed, will be stuffed and licked.