Except For

Many times, political campaigns are decided by the “except for” factor. That is, a candidate may have been a winner or at least very competitive if it were not for an unexpected candidate’s influence on the campaign.

Here is how the “except for” has worked so far:

Fred Thompson would have carried the South except for Huckabee.

Ron Paul would have carried a good portion of the pro-life vote except for Huckabee.

Hillary would have won the Democrat nomination hands-down except for Obama.

Ron Paul would have won the majority of the young vote except for Obama.

McCain would have carried most all of the big-spender Republicans except for Huckabee.

Giuliani would have been needed except for Hillary not wining the nomination.

As you can see, Huckabee and Obama have changed the race entirely. In Huck’s case, I believe he is a spoiler more than a winner. Thompson based his whole strategy on starting in the south but thought that his competition would be from NY, Mass and the far West. He didn’t figure on the Huckster. Obama is not a just a spoiler. He is the likely winner of the Democrat nomination.