Florida Eve

On the night before the GOP Florida Primary, this is the "State of the Race."

John McCain - his campaign was broke and closing last summer and inexplicably he enters the Florida primary as the "front-runner." I say inexplicably because he is the least likely of all candidates to be seriously considered by the conservative GOP base. Yet, somehow he has defied gravity, erased memory, and nosed to the front of the Repubican field. This, to no small extent because some of the primaries so far have allowed independents and even Democrats vote in the GOP primary. He has done well among those groups. But Florida is different. In Florida, only registered GOP voters can vote. McCain will lose Florida. I say lose because Florida is a winner-take-all state. Second place gains zero delegates.

Mitt Romney - Mitt 2.0 is the more conservative of the front-runners. He currently leads in the total delegate count, having won Michigan, Nevada and Wyoming. With his win in Florida tomorrow, Romney will have both the momentum and a large lead in the delegate count headed into Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee - the Huck's power-base is among evangelicals. He wins the highest percentage of those who identify themselves as conservative Christians. He wins almost no votes among those who seldom attend church. He must finish third in Florida to maintain momentum and refresh his shallow campaign fund. He then must hope for a very strong finish in the Southern states on Super Tuesday. Despite adopting more and more Ron Paul economic language (I hand it to him, he is a quick learner), he is a conservative only on social issues. As such, as I have written before, Huck is a spoiler not a winner. Mike Huckabee is John McCain's best chance at winning the nomination. All of that said, I predict Huckabee will essentially be out of money and out of the race after Super Tuesday.

Ron Paul - Dr. Paul is the only champion of the Constitution in the race, the only one who really understands economics and thus the best hope for curing what ails the economy, and the only proven-by-action pro-life candidate. His freedom, prosperity and peace platform has drawn great support among students, young adults and libertarian minded people. In fact, it may be that a movement has started around the Ron Paul message that will out-last this election year. Even the current GOP candidates are adopting his language and portions of his platform. Dr. Paul will not do well in Florida. A winner-take-all primary, it was not prudent to spend large amounts of money and time there. But following on his second place finishes in Nevada and Louisiana, the Ron Paul campaign is poised to do well in several states - especially caucus states - in the coming days. He has the money, the committed support base, and the message to stay in the race right up until the convention. He will be one of three standing at the end of the GOP primary journey.

Rudy Giuliani - last summer's front-runner has come to the eve of his last primary. Florida ends the presidential campaign of the Mayor. A poorly conceived campaign ends in failure with a fourth place finish in Florida.